The 28 states (including the District of
Columbia) implementing the Medicaid expansion for FY 2015 expect to see
the largest enrollment and spending growth — an 18 percent increase in
enrollment and an 18.3 percent increase in total Medicaid spending in FY
2015, on average. The spending growth is mostly driven by the boost in
new enrollment that is financed by 100 percent federal funds. With the
additional federal dollars, state spending in expansion states is
projected to increase at a slower rate of 4.4 percent in FY 2015.
Without the coverage expansion and federal
funding, the 23 states not implementing the ACA Medicaid expansion
project an average 5.2 percent enrollment growth for fiscal year 2015,
and project state spending to increase at a similar rate as their total
Medicaid spending (6.8% and 6.5%, respectively).
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